From this month’s white-labeled client letter:
According to an annual report by PR giant Edelman, only 40% of families globally believe they will be better off in five years. "Economic optimism is collapsing around the world," the report concludes.
It is a concerning analysis, but like all forecasts, survey participants are likely reacting more to their recent past than any sense of their future. The last few years have been concerning at best and harrowing at worst, mainly depending on where you live.
Every day we are asked if the economy is heading toward recession and, if so, how investment markets might react. More recently, we have had several conversations on the debt-ceiling fiasco in Washington and what may come of it.
The news is full of articles and links that attempt to scare you or confirm any pre-held negative biases. For example, CEOs attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, are bearish. 73% think global growth will decline in 2023 (Ward-Glenton 2023).
Does this matter? Do Davos attendees have a unique ability to forecast the future that is somehow lacking in the rest of the population? Does the mountain-fresh Swiss water offer unparalleled omniscience?
After a few sips of Swiss Mountain Natural Mineral Water, we remain skeptical of forecasting. We do not know if we are already in a recession, about to fall into recession, or if the next recession is ten years in the future.
Luckily for long-term investors, we do not have to worry about such things.
Continued in this month’s white-labeled client letter.
Remember, the client letters are yours to use, edit, and/or copy however you like as long as they are only directly mailed or emailed to your clients (no blogs or social media posts).
Your Cause is Righteous.
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